Article provenant de 2+2 et débusqué par Cashane (clubpoker).
Si quelqu’un veut s’essayer à la trad.
when giving free cards is better than betting vulnerable hands
there have been fewer generic concepts posts in hsnl, so i’d like to contribute one based on a live hand i played a while back. imho, it’s interesting because it illustrates a situation where checking the mortal nuts on the turn when villain has outs is more optimal than betting to protect.
blinds are 200/400 with a 25 dollar ante. we are seven handed. there has been a live straddle for the last few orbits livening up the action. preflop is folded to the cutoff who calls the straddle. cutoff is pretty weak imho. i’m on the button and make it 3000 to go with qj suited. with a straddler and limper, i am capable of making this raise on the button with a very wide range, and the good players at the table, including villain, know this.
villain in sb repops to 8000. folds to me. villain has a little more than 150k behind and i cover. we’re deep and i feel that i can outplay villain post flop, so i call. villain can make this raise with almost any two cards knowing that i may be stealing. however, based on villain’s behavior, i feel he likely has a premium starting hand, but i was still a little uncertain of my read.
flop is a-10-4 rainbow. villain leads for 15k into an 18k pot - which he can do with any two cards. i pop to 45k. i think villain folds anything except a set and will give me enough of a read that i can confidently fire again on the turn if i don’t think he has a set, so my raise is +ev.
villain hems/haws/hollywoods for a while and calls. now i’m almost certain he has a set of aces, at worst a set of 10s.
turn is a king completing the rainbow and giving me the mortal nuts. villain checks.
here pushing is +ev as i’m certain villain will call. since villain has ten outs, one might naively think that betting is correct here to avoid giving a free card. however, checking is better.
although villain will likely call a push now, he will also call a push on any river, except for maybe a q or j. however, he has ten outs to fill up. on the other hand if i check the turn, then i can push a non-pairing river and fold otherwise. checking allows me to steer clear of losing money the 20 percent of the time villain fills up.
i haven’t seen this concept of checking behind the mortal nuts sometimes being correct discussed on these boards (in contrast to limit games). so, i hope this hand generates interesting discussion.
Preuve mathématique:
108,000 in pot on turn. he has 97k left
if you get it in now, you gain 205k 77.27% of the time and lose 97k 22.73% of the time = 136.31k EV
if you check:
22.73% of the time you have to fold river = 0 EV
63.63% of the time you get allin on river = 205k EV
13.63% of the time a Q or J comes = X
here’s the indifference equation:
22.73% * 0 + 63.63% * 205k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
130.45k + 13.63% * X = 136.31k
X = (136.31k - 130.45k) / 13.63%
X = 43k
43k = 108k + BetSize * Call%
based on these numbers, even if he folded every time on the river you would gain money by checking the turn.
another way to put it:
by checking:
63.63% of the time all the money goes in anyway
22.73% of the time you save your remaining 97k
13.63% of the time you lose his remaining 97k when the scare card hits
clearly even if you check behind on the river when the Q or J comes you’re better off by checking the turn
